Author Topic: Jevons Paradox effect  (Read 422 times)

Offline Jules

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Jevons Paradox effect
« on: 31.05. 2022 11:25 »
OK, here's another topic you may not have heard of, but its a really interesting analogy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTfwhbfMnNc

Offline muskrat

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Re: Jevons Paradox effect
« Reply #1 on: 31.05. 2022 12:01 »
G'day Jules.
I can see his workings and as a whole agree.
Not many of us are happy with an 18" b&w tv. Most want the latest whizz bang 65" smart tv (what I got in shed) and all the extras. Cheaper units but power consumption goes up.
Basically comes down to greed or disposable income! The more we get the more we want. Except me/us.
 I use my vehicles the same as 2 years ago but the price of fuel has gone up, 2019 = $1.48, today $2.10. My wages haven't gone up 1cent.
Cheers
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Offline Jules

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Re: Jevons Paradox effect
« Reply #2 on: 01.06. 2022 03:42 »
Hi Musky, yep and tougher times ahead too by the sounds of it.....the new finance minister just read out the usual script about the prior gov't budget blowouts meaning they will have to now start cutting spending etc etc *sad2*
However, wrt Jevons Paradox effect, if you apply it to road improvements its sooo true - a road bogs down with increasing traffic, so they improve the road, which improves traffic flow, which then increases traffic on that route...... until it bogs down again, et al.....!

Offline muskrat

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Re: Jevons Paradox effect
« Reply #3 on: 01.06. 2022 09:19 »
G'day Jules.
Yes I had a bit of that today. Had to go up to Bathurst. Highway was cut with a truck accident and snow. I went the back way through Taranar. Normally a quiet country road but now was chokers with cars and small trucks. Throw in about 2km of road works (wet dirt) and drivers not used to driving it was a slow trip. I hope they don't improve it too much, it's my fav rout instead of highway.
Cheers
'51 A7 plunger, '57 A7SS racer now a A10CR, '78 XT500, '83 CB1100F, 88 HD FXST, 2000 CBR929RR ex Honda Australia Superbike .
Australia
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Offline BSA_54A10

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Re: Jevons Paradox effect
« Reply #4 on: 01.06. 2022 14:10 »
While the paradox which is not really a paradox but economist like to big note themselves because it ignores what the increased efficiency displaces
ie coal displaced wood & horses .
It is an unfortunate by product of a market economy that what ever resource is the most abundant or cheapest will be squandered unless the use of it is moderated with things like quotas or taxes .
In a command economy effiency gains can be controlled to limit consumption .
We used to do this but we gave up on it , remember we used to have government  run power companies, banks, airlines , insurance companies, phone systems but we sold them off for short term bragging rights in the hope of re-election .
People consume what they are told to consume either directly by advertising or covertly by things like product placement or celebrity endorsement.

A short example is plumbing supplies.
The cost of fitting roof top sprinkler systems is very low and the effiency of them has increased by orders of magnitudes but almost no one bothers to fit them because they are not encouraged to do so, not told to do so and no celebrity is endorsing fitting them , so despite the fact that they would reduce the chances of a house being burned down in a bush fire , almost none of the new houses will have them fitted , but the building materials are all mandated to meet higher fire standards , which will make no difference at all .

As for efficncy driving up demand, that will be dependent upon the cost of the effiency gains realtive to your disposable income .
Just because petrol is cheap it will not make me ride more , further or longer or buy a motorcycle bigger than 750 cc or ride it faster .
And the flutuations in fuel prices made no difference to my traveling and probably never will unless I become an impoverished pensioner ( very likely )  .

I have been to every BSA National rally that I was allowed to attend and will do so even if the fuel goes up to $ 10 a litre .

In order to make our pollution abatement targets the Howard government paid people to convert their vehicles to LPG .
But most fitted the cheapest LPG system ( simple venturi ) rather than the substantially more efficient direct injected LPG
 despite the later reducing the fuel consumption by nearly 20%.

The whole purpose of economists is to make Astrologist & palm readers look honest .

and when the outcome does not match the predictions shown on the spread sheets & graphs they make up fancy namer rather than being honest & saying "we really have no idea "
why the outcome did not match our forcast , it has to be because of the Idiot Moron paradox , amd it is definately not because my theory is flawed .


 
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Trevor

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Re: Jevons Paradox effect
« Reply #5 on: 01.06. 2022 15:16 »
Many years ago I was told by a very senior member of the Transport and Road Research Laboratory that our role was not to do research. Our role was to find data to justify political decisions.
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Offline Jules

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Re: Jevons Paradox effect
« Reply #6 on: 02.06. 2022 01:05 »
Thats a pretty good rant Trevor, covers lots of topics that are obviously close to your heart, good job! I have similar sessions with our kids over things that are happening that just doesn't make any sense IF people just sat back and thought through the big picture effects  *pull hair out*....
and, dont get me started on gov't dept budgets/spending Black Sheep, when each dept. HAS to spend its budgeted amount else lose it, never to be replaced the next year, no wonder there is never enough money to go around!!
It was suggested to me recently that I should watch the "utopia" TV series, because of my Govt. cynicism - very topical, I thought LoL.
Have you noticed the latest Gov't trend wrt document "signatures" eg emails etc,  eg John Smith (he/his) or Jane Smith (she/her/hers)??

Online Joolstacho

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Re: Jevons Paradox effect
« Reply #7 on: 02.06. 2022 01:38 »
'Course Rooftop sprinkler systems are all very well. But unless you're on mains water you need a big 'spare' water storage tank, Plus, you need non-electric pumps, or gravity feed.
First thing that happens when the fire comes along is, the power goes off, so unless you have a gennie your electric water pumps don't go!
(Ask me how I know!)

Offline Rex

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Re: Jevons Paradox effect
« Reply #8 on: 02.06. 2022 08:32 »
After the tragic Grenfell Tower fire in London some years back the Net experts cried "why weren't there sprinklers fitted in this building"?
Hmmm, sprinklers fitted in a social housing block. What could possibly go wrong, about ten times a day?
Then again my old workplace had a sprinkler system fitted in the underground car park, and a serious van fire (leaving two burnt out van hulks) didn't set them off..

Offline BSA_54A10

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Re: Jevons Paradox effect
« Reply #9 on: 02.06. 2022 11:58 »
'Course Rooftop sprinkler systems are all very well. But unless you're on mains water you need a big 'spare' water storage tank, Plus, you need non-electric pumps, or gravity feed.
First thing that happens when the fire comes along is, the power goes off, so unless you have a gennie your electric water pumps don't go!
(Ask me how I know!)
You need a recirculating water system so the water that runs down the roof gutters goes back into the tank it came from
A person who knows what they are douing will install an appropriate sized tank
Most ember attacks are fairly short lived and 20,000 litres will cover most houses for quite some time
About 1/3 of the water has to go past the gutters so the ground around the house is also damp .
Naturally there should never be any vegitation against the house walls ( but every one dose this ) .
And yes a diesel or petrol electric start pump is required .
Not much use if you are not there to start it but a couple of people on my old Blue Mountains delivery run had them installed and they all said it was the only thing that actually saved their property as all of th RFS was at Katoomba & Leura so the houses on Shippley plateau were told to leave as there would be no emergency response teams available .

Lots of politicallyy conected people with hoses in Leura & Wenty .

The builder showed me the regulations for building in a bush fire affected region, it was hundreds of pages long, but not a word about sprinklers or roof shapes.
Same story with the people I know at Springwood & Windlamee all sorts of stuff like external window stills having to be 1/2 round or sloped at 45 deg or more to avoid embers resting there but nothing about attic windoes & roofs making debris traps .

As for government spending Musky, yes totally stupid
We used to get an allocation to cover general running costs then extra on a project by project basis , then Fraser came in & everything changed .
Departments should all get a fixed percentage of revenue so they have a known budget withing a few percent every year and if they ubder spend 1/2 of the under spend gts added to next year as extra funding .
There will be few raging bushfires this seasoon sothe accountants will consider bush fire solved and clawback money from the RFS thus preventing long term fire proofing planning from being exicuted & because of the floods, the money will be channeled into the SES .
Meanwhile millions of dollars worht of trains are sitting idle because the government failed to consult with their staff & thought if they ordered trains with no facilities for a guard then they could force guardless trains onto the tracks
On top of that 22 trian platforms will have to be made narrower because the trains are too wide of most island platforms and 18 tunnels made taller because the trains won't fit through them.     
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Trevor

Offline BSA_54A10

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Re: Jevons Paradox effect
« Reply #10 on: 02.06. 2022 12:09 »
After the tragic Grenfell Tower fire in London some years back the Net experts cried "why weren't there sprinklers fitted in this building"?
Hmmm, sprinklers fitted in a social housing block. What could possibly go wrong, about ten times a day?
Then again my old workplace had a sprinkler system fitted in the underground car park, and a serious van fire (leaving two burnt out van hulks) didn't set them off..

There are systems that work & systems that just barely comply with regulations
External sprinklers outside all windows are difficult to toy with and make a massive difference in the case of a big fire
Most resdidential hotels have them fitted down here
Not as effective in reducing the impact of internal fires as roof top sprinklers are at protecting from ember attack
I have sat all night on my roof when we were in Springwood on 5 occasions , hose in hand and on two of them actively doused spot fires in my yard & the neighbours yard from there
Having a 1" hose on a a fire pump does make a big difference
At idle the pump recirculates but when the nozzel is opened & the pump goes to fulll power the recirculation valve closes
An expensive piece of kit but otherswise I would have needed to lift the pump onto the roof
Wish I still had it .   
Bike Beesa
Trevor